Originally published on LinkedIn in December 2020; reviewed and updated for this site.
The wearables market covers hearables, smart watches, wristbands and more — electronic devices used for everything from health tracking and data logging to mobile payments. IDC reported that the global wearables market grew 35.1% year on year in the third quarter of 2020, with shipments reaching 125 million units, and forecast a five-year compound annual growth rate of 12.4%, reaching 637.1 million units by 2024. Hearables led that market with a 59% share, followed by watches at 23% and wristbands at 17%.
Interesting figures in themselves — but what is driving that growth?
What the analysts expect
"Wearable devices and services will evolve together in the coming quarters," said Ramon T. Llamas, research director for Mobile Devices and AR/VR at IDC. "Wearables are the perfect device to collect user data and services provide guidance and actionable insight."
Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for IDC Mobile Device Trackers, pointed at combinations: "Imagine tying positional and audio input from hearables with health metrics from the wrist to gauge a user's level of attention or excitement in the surrounding environment."
So the expected growth rests on wearables collecting data from multiple sensors, from different vendors, and turning it into actionable insight. How easily is that going to be achieved — and why has it not happened already?
The sensor problem
Until recently, capturing data from an individual and their environment meant a plethora of sensors from multiple vendors, each providing information at different times, over different communications media, and at considerable cost. On that basis it is difficult to see how you would ever achieve the density of sensors on a person, or across an area, needed to deliver the guidance and insight being promised.
Fortunately the world of sensors is changing, with the advent of MEMS — microelectromechanical systems.
What MEMS changes
MEMS is technology that allows mechanical structures to be miniaturised and thoroughly integrated with electrical circuitry, resulting in a single physical device that behaves more like a system: mechanical and electrical components working together to implement the desired function.
People tend to look down on mechanical components as less advanced than electronic ones. That does not mean the mechanical approach is inferior — the mechanical relay is far older than transistor-based devices with similar functionality, and relays are still widely used. But conventional mechanical devices will always be much larger than the electronics found in integrated circuits, and in a space-constrained application that is decisive.
In sensing, MEMS now covers gyroscopes, inclinometers, accelerometers, flow sensors, gas sensors, pressure sensors and magnetic-field sensors.
What it makes possible
As a result, companies such as NevadaNano have brought out multi-gas sensors at low cost, with better reliability and simpler integration thanks to the on-board electronics. Researchers at Graz University of Technology, together with ams and Silicon Austria Labs, developed what was reported as the world's smallest particle sensor — aimed at smartphones, smart watches and other mobile devices, able to measure ambient air quality in real time and alert the user to elevated dust levels. It measures 12 mm × 9 mm × 3 mm.
This pioneering work is commoditising sensors in a way never seen before, and allowing them to be embedded into wearable devices at a cost people did not think possible. The question is whether this is the perfect storm for wearables, and whether it delivers the growth the analysts predict.